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Elon Musk may be one of the greatest entrepreneurs in modern American history, but when SpaceX finally launches its long-anticipated IPO, investors would be wise to look beyond the hype, the typical financial and risk analysis to consider and assess the potentially significant political risk attached to the company.

Retail investors will undoubtedly rush toward a SpaceX IPO. The company revolutionized commercial space launch, dominates satellite deployment, and has significantly expanded global internet access through its Starlink satellite network.

. Investors see innovation, dominance, and virtually limitless growth potential. Not to mention Mr. Musk has a great track record of creating wealth.

But SpaceX is not a traditional company, it is an extension of Mr. Musk, who carries a considerable amount of political baggage.

It operates on the fault lines of politics, regulation, national security, environmental activism, and government co-dependency. That creates a level of political vulnerability many investors may be dangerously underestimating.

The reality is simple: a future Democratic administration hostile to Musk could weaponize the federal bureaucracy against SpaceX in ways that materially impact the company’s operations and thus shareholder value. That risk is not theoretical.

Over the past several years, Democrats and progressive activists have increasingly viewed Musk not merely as a businessman, but as a political enemy. His alignment with President Donald Trump, his leadership at D.O.G.E*, criticism of DEI** policies, and willingness to challenge the political left have made him one of the most polarizing figures in America.

For investors, that matters. Political risk is a dimension of investing under appreciated by investors, a misstep can quickly lead to negative press at a minimum and to boycotts either left or right

SpaceX depends heavily on government approvals. Every major launch requires FAA licensing, environmental review, and safety clearances. A hostile administration would not need to block SpaceX outright to inflict damage. It could simply slow approvals, expand review processes, increase environmental scrutiny, or impose additional procedural hurdles that delay launches and raise costs.

And when it comes to Starship and SpaceX’s Texas operations, the environmental angle is especially important.

The company already faces environmental impact reviews and scrutiny tied to wildlife and coastal protections. A future administration aligned with climate activists could expand protected zones, tighten environmental standards, impose new operational restrictions, or limit launch frequency altogether.

For a company built on rapid launch cadence, regulatory slowdowns are not minor inconveniences. They are major business threats.

Government contract exposure creates another major risk.

SpaceX relies heavily on NASA and Department of Defense contracts. While supporters of Musk argue the government needs SpaceX because of its superior technology and lower costs, Washington has repeatedly shown that politics often overrides efficiency.

A future administration could redirect contracts toward politically favored competitors such as Blue Origin or United Launch Alliance under the guise of “competition” or “procurement diversification.” Procurement rules could change. Funding cycles could slow. Oversight could intensify.

Starlink also introduces significant regulatory exposure.

The satellite internet network depends heavily on FCC spectrum allocation and international approvals. A future administration could restrict spectrum access, favor competing providers, impose pricing mandates, or create new service obligations that impact profitability.

At the same time, SpaceX’s dominance itself may eventually become a political target.

The company controls enormous launch market share, leads reusable rocket technology, and dominates satellite deployment capabilities. Under a progressive administration eager to crack down on large private companies, antitrust scrutiny would become increasingly likely.

Future regulators could investigate pricing practices, restrict bundling between launch services and Starlink deployment, or impose competitive carve-outs designed to strengthen weaker rivals.

Finally, there is the national security dimension.

SpaceX has become deeply embedded within America’s defense infrastructure through military launches, secure communications, and strategic satellite capabilities. As the company’s importance grows, so too will government pressure to exert greater oversight and control.

None of this means SpaceX is not an extraordinary company. It is.

But investors who ignore the political reality surrounding Elon Musk and the increasingly weaponized nature of the American government do so at their own peril.

For a company as politically exposed as SpaceX, political risk shouldn’t be ignored.

Questions Investors Are Asking

• What is political risk—and why does it matter in a SpaceX IPO?
• How could government regulation affect SpaceX and Starlink?
• Does Elon Musk create political risk for investors?
• How should investors price political risk into a SpaceX IPO

William Flaig is the CEO and Co-Founder of The American Conservative Values ETF (ACVF), an actively managed, diversified large-cap ETF that is dual listed on the NYSE and NYSE Texas. Learn more at https://investconservative.com/

* D.O.G.E – Department of Government Efficiency

** DEI – Diversity Equity and Inclusion

The views expressed are those of the authors as of 6/8/26 and are subject to change without notice. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of results, or investment advice.